Monday, January 10
Drowning opportunities
Even in this part of the world, so close to the disaster, not everyone sees only the tragedy in the tsunami disaster that claimed more than a hundred thousand lives. Post-disaster, I was talking to Dee, and our conversation drifted to Nassim Taleb and his ruminations about black swans (or rare events), which might tie in pretty well with that which happened to South Asia on the morning of Boxing Day.
What dee said about not mourning as much as he should, partly coz' 'more people die in much slower ways each year from a range of silent killers' and partly coz' 'natural disasters tend to be agents of change' are ringing much more truth than most people care to admit.
In this case, agents of change could come in the form of reconciliations between the government and the rebels in the two countries worst hit by the disaster.
In Indonesia (Aceh), the government and rebels / pro-independence fighters have declared a ceasefire in the aftermath of the disaster. Even then, both sides have accused each other of attacks, none of which could be independently verified. We are crossing our fingers that relief effort for disaster might change the dynamics of the long-running conflict between the antagonists. If not, we could all be back to square one.
In Sri Lanka, the Sri Lankan government and Tamil Tiger rebels are thrown together to bring aid to hundreds of thousands of tsunami victims. A situation where many hope would offer a chance to mend fences. Then the former decided to bar UN Secretary General Kofi Annan from visiting tsunami-hit north-eastern areas under rebel Tamil Tiger control. The Tigers were furious. They (the tigers) have also protested against the government's decision to send soldiers to manage relief camps in their territories, and have accused the government of discriminating against them in distributing aid.
This, that and a couple more accusations from both sides. Such tensions are threatening to overshadow the aid effort, and the disaster now looks likely to exacerbate ethnic grievances in Sri Lanka rather than help overcome them.
There is really no easy way out, especially of any political situation. But it is more likely for an age old feud to be settled in the face of disaster than for an internal illness to cure itself. This disaster has created opportunities for conflict resolution. The ball is in their courts, if they want to seize them.
Resources: BCC NEWS | South Asia
Even in this part of the world, so close to the disaster, not everyone sees only the tragedy in the tsunami disaster that claimed more than a hundred thousand lives. Post-disaster, I was talking to Dee, and our conversation drifted to Nassim Taleb and his ruminations about black swans (or rare events), which might tie in pretty well with that which happened to South Asia on the morning of Boxing Day.
What dee said about not mourning as much as he should, partly coz' 'more people die in much slower ways each year from a range of silent killers' and partly coz' 'natural disasters tend to be agents of change' are ringing much more truth than most people care to admit.
In this case, agents of change could come in the form of reconciliations between the government and the rebels in the two countries worst hit by the disaster.
In Indonesia (Aceh), the government and rebels / pro-independence fighters have declared a ceasefire in the aftermath of the disaster. Even then, both sides have accused each other of attacks, none of which could be independently verified. We are crossing our fingers that relief effort for disaster might change the dynamics of the long-running conflict between the antagonists. If not, we could all be back to square one.
In Sri Lanka, the Sri Lankan government and Tamil Tiger rebels are thrown together to bring aid to hundreds of thousands of tsunami victims. A situation where many hope would offer a chance to mend fences. Then the former decided to bar UN Secretary General Kofi Annan from visiting tsunami-hit north-eastern areas under rebel Tamil Tiger control. The Tigers were furious. They (the tigers) have also protested against the government's decision to send soldiers to manage relief camps in their territories, and have accused the government of discriminating against them in distributing aid.
This, that and a couple more accusations from both sides. Such tensions are threatening to overshadow the aid effort, and the disaster now looks likely to exacerbate ethnic grievances in Sri Lanka rather than help overcome them.
There is really no easy way out, especially of any political situation. But it is more likely for an age old feud to be settled in the face of disaster than for an internal illness to cure itself. This disaster has created opportunities for conflict resolution. The ball is in their courts, if they want to seize them.
Resources: BCC NEWS | South Asia
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